January 9, 2019

In our third report in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or One Belt One Road (OBOR) series, we examine a brand-new US strategic initiative to finance emerging markets economies, including OBOR, African, and Latin American countries.

The on-going trade war between China and the US makes the issue very political. Rightfully so, we believe the creation of the International Developm...

November 8, 2018

Hna Group (HNAGRZ CH) announced on 6-November that it has repaid USD300m of principal in SANYPH 11/18s which matured on the same date. The event has unfolded as per our prediction and we believe the SANYPH 11/18 repayment increases the likelihood that SANYPH 12/18s, which will mature on 3-December, will also be redeemed.

As such, we remove SANYPH 11/18s from our coverage and maint...

October 30, 2018

HNA Group Ltd. (HNAGRZ CH) (HNA)’s SANYPH 11/18s will mature on November 6 (next Tuesday) and we believe there is a likelihood that HNA will repay the bonds, based on the group’s credit facilities, on-going asset sales, and additional new debt the group has raised so far since July.

We note that it will be difficult to buy SANYPH 11/18s since the maturity date is already next week...

October 26, 2018

Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) (“Bharti”)’s management announced on 24-October that it would sell a minority stake in Airtel Africa Ltd. (AA), its UK-based mobile operator in 14 African countries for USD1.25bn. The transaction, in effect, put post-money equity valuation of the company’s African business of USD4.4bn with the enterprise value at USD8.15bn.

The share sale will be subscrib...

January 21, 2018

HNA Group Co Ltd (HNAGRZ CH) ("HNA") has gone through a series of negative news since last year and, to us, it is almost akin to the "Spanish" inquisition in Mel Brooke's movie. We have fielded a lot of questions with the press and our clients since we have launched our coverage on HNA ( HNA: Huge,National, & Aggressive and HNA: No Happy New Answers) and would like to share our a...

December 31, 2017

Negative headlines and the new 363-day USD bond issuance have significantly raised yields of all HNA-related bonds. While we see an attractive carry on SANYPH 11/​18s and SANYPH 12/​18s especially for retail investors, we do not foresee a major improvement in HNA's credit profile in the near term. HNA's execution and refinancing risks pose asymmetric downside risk to all HNA-rela...

November 30, 2017

Vedanta Resources PLC (VED LN) ("Vedanta")'s rating upgrade by Moody's on 20-November reflects India's sovereign rating upgrade 3 days before, in our view, as operating environment is a main driver in Moody's rating model. Vedanta's improving credit metrics, evidenced by improving first half results, announced on 10-November was self-evident, in our opinion, but India's sovereign...

October 25, 2017

HNA has grown so Huge it has become a National interest, in our judgment. Its Aggressive acquisitions backed by rising leverage have raised execution as well as refinancing risks. The group's reliance on shadow banking to reach its global aspiration leads us to question the management's long-term strategy.  Questionable corporate governance makes it difficult to measure the compa...

September 27, 2017

Warut Promboon was speaking in an Asian Treasury Leaders' Forum 2017 at HKCEC on China's onshore bonds: Access, Rewards & Risks. He was joined by Ricco Zhang, Director – Asia Pacific, International Capital Market Association (ICMA). The presentation is available upon request.

September 21, 2017

Monitor: Moody’s Downgrade on China Is the First Domino to Fall). The outlook was revised to stable from negative.

We reiterate our Neutral recommendation on China's USD bond universe as our outlook on China has not changed and S&P's downgrade is within our expectation. Though we believe the market has already  anticipated the downgrade, the knee-jerk reaction from the downgrade i...

September 18, 2017

The annual Myanmar Global Investment Forum left a good (but cautious) impression on Myanmar. We have come across so much optimism about the country of 60+ million people but we were also affirmed on the need to be patient on the development here. There is also a lot to be done mostly by the government sector in order for Myanmar to be a true contender for foreign direct investmen...

September 14, 2017

n Asian Credit Monitor: China’s Onshore Bonds (Part I: The Normandy), we highlighted the access and motivations for investing in China's onshore bonds. In Part II, we aim at a sequel that explains risks of investing in China's onshore bonds, hence the title of this report. At the end of the day, we believe there are a lot of naked swimmers among Chinese onshore bond issuers and,...

September 4, 2017

Asian Credit Monitor: China’s Onshore Bonds (Part I: The Normandy)

in Thematic & Strategy

Bond Connect will help international investors gain a better foothold in China's onshore bond market. We believe this is the right time for international investors to start landing onshore in China, hence the title of our report. In this 2-part report, we highlighted the landscape of China's o...

August 16, 2017

We revisited the Asian US Dollar bond universe, following our original ADBM (dated 24-April-2017). Asian USD bond spreads have staged a come-back in August on a flight to quality on rising geopolitical tension with North Korea. We note that the recent performance has not been symmetrical across all countries. We have witnessed outperformance for Indonesia's and India's USD credit...

July 17, 2017

Source: Climate Bond Initiatives

Green bonds are not just for saving the planet and there are additional benefits that Asian investors should consider. A green bond concept is quite new in Asia and we believe Asian investors need both monetary incentives and directives from their regulators/ governments to be more interested in saving the planet. In this flash note, we look at gre...

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