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Noble Group: “I Will Survive”

Noble Group (Noble), the embattled commodity trader and supply-chain manager, has been on a mission to reinvent itself for many years since it embarked on its "asset-light" strategy. This has been exacerbated by a structural downturn in commodity markets. That said, Noble has been a criticism target of a major short-seller and its own creditors in recent years.

Despite its fragile situation, we think the company will undergo a soft restructuring and we believe it should successfully settle its short-term debt by novation, renegotiation (with or without collateral) and a liability management exercise. At the crux of our investment thesis is the recovery value which forms the basis of our credit valuation and justification that the company has a reasonable survival probability. On an unse...

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